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Archived investment notes

Archived investment notes

03/02/2012
High conviction, low valuations
Kevin Lilley: European companies have significant exposure to global growth … and they trade on low valuations
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03/02/2012
Blending cyclicals with defensives
Ian Heslop: As conditions appear to improve, the time seems right to add an element of risk to the portfolio
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03/02/2012
Old-fashioned values
Christine Johnson: The focus of the fund will be minimising defaults and ensuring an appropriate yield
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01/02/2012
The Era of the Mini-Cycle
Ashton Bradbury: As markets jump between risk on and risk off, we can expect a period of dominated by mini-cycles
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27/01/2012
Banks are the focus of risk
Kevin Lilley: The global economy is starting to look a bit better and the eurozone slightly less frightening. As the market turns, getting the banks right will be key to performance
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27/01/2012
The challenge of growth
Stephen Message: We may be facing a low growth economy, but there are still companies increasing their profits… not always where you expect them
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27/01/2012
The price isn't right
Stewart Cowley: Government bonds depend on central bank life-lines while the relative value of corporates is attractive
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23/01/2012
Managing for 'recession-lite'
Christine Johnson: Low growth and gradual disinflation will be good for fixed cash-flows - precisely what a well-run corporate bond fund can provide
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16/01/2012
How to fail - repeat the past
Stewart Cowley: The more we repeat our failures, the more we perfect them. Success in bond markets in 2012 will depend on breaking habits of failure and facing fundamental evidence

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16/01/2012
When all around you are losing their heads
Ian Heslop: In markets characterised by extreme ‘risk on, risk off’ volatility, a market neutral strategy, focused on absolute returns, can offer a haven of consistency
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10/01/2012
The God Policy
Stewart Cowley: Arithmetic is resisting quantitative easing. As yields approach 2.5% - 3%, risk overtakes reward and any positive effects fade away
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07/01/2012
Finding the 'sweet spot' in 2012
Christine Johnson: Global, real economy businesses are in a strong financial position – and paying high absolute yields. If you are looking for an attractive, lower risk return in 2012… follow the money

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05/01/2012
Automotives
Kevin Lilley: The case for cars may not be obvious. But the opportunity for 2012 and beyond is less in home markets and mainly in faster growing emerging markets
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29/12/2011
A positive response
Richard Watts: Avoid the negative and capture the positive - the key is balance between structural growth, quality and cyclicals exposed to strong end-markets
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26/12/2011
Getting the balance right
Richard Watts: The priority for 2012 will be to avoid the negative and capture the positive. the key themes will be structural growth, quality and cyclical exposure to strong end-markets
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16/12/2011
Profiting from volatility
Ian Heslop: The extreme pessimism of the summer has passed, but flexibility is key to success.
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16/12/2011
The opening shot
Stewart Cowley: The tone of American politics is changing. The emphasis is moving to fiscal inclusion – who should pay for the ‘mountain’ of public debt, and how
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16/12/2011
Strengths become weaknesses
Stewart Cowley: Japan has stood aloof from other heavily indebted states due to its ability to fund itself domestically. Will it last?
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09/12/2011
Domestic opportunity
Daniel Nickols: The emphasis of UK equities in recent years has been companies accessing global growth, but there are still many interesting domestic stories
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09/12/2011
Buying inflation protection from the US and UK
Stewart Cowley: No fillip from the Phillips Curve - We face the worst case scenario – low growth and high inflation. The Phillips Curve may offer an insight on who is vulnerable and why
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05/12/2011
Back to the real economy
Christine Johnson: Government and bank debt is the problem, not the solution. If you want safety, follow the money - to large corporates
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05/12/2011
Time for reconsideration?
Ian Heslop: Quantitative strategies disappointed in the crises of 2008, but performed well in similarly volatile markets this year?
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02/12/2011
Life in Europe
Kevin Lilley: It is easy to think, reading the news, that Europe is in a hopeless state. But there are some powerful opportunities if you look in the right places
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02/12/2011
Growth will muddle through
Simon Murphy: Macro issues have dominated equity markets,driving down valuations. But fundamentals remain strong, with many companies continuing to prosper
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30/11/2011
The Illusion of Material Equivalence
Stewart Cowley: We have lived on debt, debt and more debt. We have all been complicit, governments, banks, producers, retailers, consumers. Now we have to pay it back
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29/11/2011
The game has changed
Christine Johnson: Banks are taking a much more aggressive attitude to funding, forced into a corner by sharply rising yields and recapitalisation
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29/11/2011
Cautious but not defensive
Daniel Nickols: In difficult market conditions, the aim is to balance the fund between structural growth and international earnings, always with an eye to quality
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11/11/2011
Eurozone - the real tests are still to come
Stewart Cowley: Resolution of the eurozone crisis may be a step closer, but real tests lie ahead: huge G6 indebtedness and negative real yields
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04/11/2011
How unimportant is Greece?
Stewart Cowley: The road to a eurozone resolution may be bumpy, but it is unlikely to be fatal. The real issues are huge G6 indebtedness and negative real yields

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01/11/2011
Capitalism in crisis
Stewart Cowley: Reducing duration and buying inflation protection
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25/10/2011
Exciting yield opportunities
Stephen Message: In a volatile, macro-driven market, yield and growth opportunities continue to stand out, sometimes in surprising places
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25/10/2011
Fundamentals are not driving the market
Christine Johnson: Uncertainty surrounding the eurozone, and the potential impact on global growth, is outweighing market fundamentals
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24/10/2011
Old Mutual Global Equity Absolute Return Fund - Q3 review
Ian Heslop: The portfolio saw strong performance in the third quarter with returns at 6.2%, bringing year to date returns to 13.6%
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20/10/2011
Eurozone is key to recovery
Ashton Bradbury: US data has seen modest improvement. Chinese growth remains at a good level. The eurozone is the remaining hurdle to recovery
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18/10/2011
The eurozone...again
Daniel Nickols: As the eurozone sovereign debt crisis edges to yet another decision point, investors need to be taking views on the likely impact on financial markets
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10/10/2011
Opportunities for stock pickers
Richard Watts: It may not seem the most obvious thing to say at this point, but UK mid cap equities continue to offer opportunities for stock pickers
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05/10/2011
Taxidermy
Stewart Cowley: Governments need to reduce their debts. Should they cut spending? Or raise taxes?
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26/09/2011
Twist and shout
Stewart Cowley: Operation Twist is achieving its aim of lowering yields. But as the West turns Japanese, the scope for absolute declines is limited
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24/09/2011
Capturing positive returns
Ian Heslop: The fund’s dynamic valuation strategy allows it to account for investor sentiment. This helps to support
positive returns during market downturns
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08/09/2011
UK equity outlook: a grudging recovery
Ashton Bradbury: Recovery in Western markets will be sluggish, but higher in emerging markets, taking global growth to a respectable level. The eurozone remains a key risk
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07/09/2011
The view ahead
Simon Murphy: Equity markets have been swayed by fear in recent weeks. As we move through the current challenges we should see a return of economic growth and a more optimistic outlook
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01/09/2011
Nothing to fear
Christine Johnson: Corporate bonds are currently valued at levels that investors could breakeven in almost any circumstances seen in recent memory, including the 2008/09 meltdown
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01/09/2011
The urge to converge
Stewart Cowley: Markets may be chaotic, but through it we see the reemergence of the trend of government bond yields converging to the lowest common denominator. For many, unfortunately, the real yield will be negative
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15/08/2011
Strong performance in tough markets
Ian Heslop: The Old Mutual Global Equity Absolute Return has seen outstanding performance this year. Fund manager Ian Heslop answers questions on how the fund has done so well in some of the most difficult markets seen in recent years
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05/08/2011
Soft patch or a return to recession
By Stephen Message, manager of the Old Mutual Equity Income Fund
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05/08/2011
Bond markets - it is not over yet
Stewart Cowley: Reluctantly long the US Treasury and Bunde markets,underweight the euro for the time being
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01/08/2011
The God of Compund Interest
Stewart Cowley: The debts of the G5 national governments are forming into the fourth wave of the credit crunch. Slowly but surely, the implacable force of compounding is turning interest payments into a significant public expense
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01/08/2011
Why we like software
Daniel Nickols: The UK may not have iconic household names, but as the recent bid for Autonomy showed, there are highly valuable, world-leading businesses in the technology sector
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01/08/2011
Why we remain optimistic
Ashton Bradbury: A number of seemingly negative macro issues are weighing on equities - but corporate signals remain positive
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